Youâre not a spreadsheet. Youâre a person. A flawed, emotional, complicated person. Aiming to be mostly reasonable works better than trying to be coldly rational. A reasonable strategy you can stick with beats an optimal strategy youâll abandon.
The best financial plan is not the one that maximizes returnsâitâs the one you can actually follow through tough times.
Rational: The mathematically optimal strategy, regardless of how it makes you feel
Reasonable: A strategy that makes sense to you and that you can stick with through thick and thin
Academic finance is devoted to finding the rational strategy. Real-world success comes from finding a reasonable one.
Fevers are actually your bodyâs rational response to infectionâthe heat kills bacteria. But a fever is miserable. So we take medicine to reduce it, even though thatâs technically working against our bodyâs optimal strategy.
This is rational. But itâs also reasonable to reduce your suffering. In finance, the same logic applies: sometimes the âsuboptimalâ strategy is the right choice because itâs the one you can live with.
From a purely rational standpoint, owning a home often doesnât make financial sense. Renting and investing the difference can yield higher returns. But home ownership provides something hard to quantify: stability, pride, community connection.
Telling someone not to buy a house because the math doesnât work ignores that humans arenât spreadsheets. The psychological benefits of ownership might be worth the financial cost.
The best investment strategy is not the one with the highest expected return. Itâs the one you can maintain through:
Housel argues thereâs something to be said for loving your investments. If youâre passionate about a company and genuinely enjoy following it, youâre more likely to stick with it through downturns. Pure optimization misses this.
The same applies to your career: a job you love that pays less might make you happier and more successful in the long run than a job you hate that pays more.
The pursuit of the optimal strategy can paralyze you with analysis. Or worse, it can lead you to a strategy thatâs theoretically perfect but practically impossible to maintain. Donât let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
A reasonable financial life involves: