Food

“Without the Haber-Bosch process of synthetic nitrogen fixation, the Earth could not support more than half its current population.” — Vaclav Smil

The Green Revolution’s Legacy

The most important preventative of famine in human history was not aid, not democracy, and not free markets — it was the Green Revolution. Beginning in the 1940s and accelerating through the 1960s and 1970s, plant scientist Norman Borlaug and his colleagues developed high-yield varieties of wheat, rice, and maize that, combined with synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and improved irrigation, tripled global food production between 1960 and 2000 on roughly the same amount of farmland.

The numbers are staggering:

• Global food production in 2020 was approximately three times what it was in 1960
• The world’s population grew from 3 billion to 8 billion over that same period
• Food per capita nonetheless increased — people today eat more calories than people in 1960, on average
• The proportion of people suffering from chronic hunger fell from roughly 50% in 1960 to approximately 10% today

The Role of Synthetic Nitrogen

The Haber-Bosch process — the industrial synthesis of ammonia from nitrogen and hydrogen, enabling mass production of nitrogen fertilizer — is arguably the most important invention in human history. Smil’s estimate: without synthetic fertilizer, the Earth could support approximately 3.5-4 billion people on its current farmland. We have 8 billion. Synthetic nitrogen feeds approximately half of humanity.

This dependency is profound and underappreciated. Every piece of food eaten by roughly 4 billion people depends on a chain of industrial processes that began in a German laboratory in 1909.

The Meat Question

No topic in food generates more confusion and misinformation than the environmental impact of meat — particularly beef. The numbers are not subtle.

Resource Requirements for Different Foods

Water required to produce 1 kilogram of food:

• Rice: approximately 1,500-2,000 liters
• Chicken: approximately 4,000 liters
• Pork: approximately 6,000 liters
• Beef: approximately 15,000 liters
• Pulses (lentils, chickpeas): approximately 900-1,400 liters

CO2-equivalent emissions per kilogram of protein:

• Lentils: approximately 0.9 kg CO2e
• Chicken: approximately 5-6 kg CO2e
• Pork: approximately 7-8 kg CO2e
• Beef (grass-fed): approximately 30-50 kg CO2e
• Beef (feedlot): approximately 20-30 kg CO2e

Beef production is approximately 20 times more resource-intensive per unit of protein than legumes. Americans eat about 120 kilograms of meat per person per year. Indians eat approximately 4 kilograms. The environmental difference between these diets is enormous.

The Complexity of Dietary Advice

Smil resists simplistic prescriptions. The environmental impact of food is real, but:

• Much grazing land is not suitable for crop production — grass-fed cattle convert inedible grass into food humans can eat
• Small-scale mixed farming (animals + crops) can be more sustainable than industrial monocultures
• Cultural and economic context matters enormously — telling a subsistence farmer in Kenya to stop eating meat is not the same as advising a wealthy American

The most honest statement is: dramatically reducing beef consumption in rich countries would be one of the most impactful individual choices available to people who have the choice.

Food Waste on a Massive Scale

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that approximately one-third of all food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted every year — roughly 1.3 billion tons annually.

• In developing countries: most food loss occurs at the farm and processing stages (lack of refrigeration, storage, transport infrastructure)
• In wealthy countries: most food waste occurs at the retail and consumer levels (sell-by date anxiety, overshopping, plate waste)

The environmental implications are enormous. If global food waste were a country, it would be the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, after the US and China.

Can We Feed 10 Billion?

The answer, based on current agricultural capacity and potential improvements, is almost certainly yes — but not while eating as Americans currently eat. Feeding 10 billion people sustainably requires dramatically reducing food waste, shifting diets away from resource-intensive animal products in wealthy countries, continuing to improve crop yields, and reducing agriculture’s land and water footprint.

The food challenge is not primarily a technology problem. It is a problem of distribution, waste, and dietary choices in wealthy countries.

Key Takeaways

• The Green Revolution tripled food production between 1960 and 2000 on roughly constant farmland, preventing famines that would otherwise have killed hundreds of millions
• Synthetic nitrogen fertilizer (from the Haber-Bosch process) feeds approximately half of humanity — our most critical and underappreciated industrial dependency
• Beef production requires approximately 15,000 liters of water per kilogram and emits 20-50 times more greenhouse gases per gram of protein than lentils
• One-third of all food produced globally is wasted — the most easily addressable inefficiency in the global food system
• Feeding 10 billion people is possible, but requires reducing food waste, shifting wealthy-country diets, and sustained investment in agricultural productivity
• The food challenge is political, behavioral, and economic — the technical solutions already exist